Last year’s IPO class entered the market with optimism, but the tone has shifted sharply. Figma is trading roughly 80% below its peak, and sentiment around Circle, Klarna, and Chime has softened as investors reassess growth, profitability, and durability. These are not isolated disappointments; they represent a broad reset in how public markets are pricing tech narratives. That recalibration matters as several of the world’s most ambitious companies prepare to test public demand in 2025.
SpaceX, with a target valuation approaching $1.5 trillion, stands at the front of that line. OpenAI and Anthropic, together representing another trillion-plus in anticipated market cap, add further pressure. The question now facing investors is straightforward: if the market struggles to digest conventional high-profile debuts, how will it absorb offerings an order of magnitude larger?
The answer likely hinges on differentiation. SpaceX and OpenAI sit in a category of their own—businesses with global infrastructure roles, deep technical moats, and narratives that attract capital even in dislocated markets. Their scale is a challenge, but their strategic importance generates demand that weaker IPO cohorts cannot replicate.
By contrast, standard enterprise and fintech unicorns such as Plaid, Ramp, Revolut, and Monzo lack the same protective enthusiasm. Their fundamentals may be solid, yet they operate in crowded categories where investors can wait for clearer signals. In today’s environment, “viable but ordinary” carries valuation risk.
For private investors, the implication is clear: prioritize exposure to irreplaceable assets with decisive strategic weight, and be selective with late-stage holdings that depend on broad-market appetite rather than category-defining dominance.
